First major Wall Street bank to forecast a recession now sees downside risk to its own pessimistic view

Deutsche Bank, the first major Wall Street bank to call for a US recession during the current elevated-inflation era, is now going farther out on a limb: It sees downside risks to its own outlook, given the likelihood of persistently elevated price gains and continued upside surprises. Describing themselves as “the extreme outlier on the … Read more

Opinion: The gathering stagflationary storm will rattle markets, economies and societies

NEW YORK (Project Syndicate)— The new reality with which many advanced economies and emerging markets must reckon is higher inflation and slowing economic growth. And a big reason for the current bout of stagflation is a series of negative aggregate supply shocks that have curtailed production and increased costs. This should come as no surprise. … Read more

‘The Fed always screws up.’ This forecaster sees inflation peaking and U.S. stocks in a bear market by summer

Keith McCullough, founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, has been bullish on gold, silver and utilities since the start of the year, when his investment-research firm’s economic models turned bearish on stocks and bonds. That defensive move was the result of Hedgeye’s models getting an early jump on a shift in the US economic … Read more