Recession fears are growing. Is this weak stock market trying to tell us something?

Might recent stock market weakness be forecasting an economic recession? Up until last this week, few had given that possibility much credence. The market’s weakness — the S&P 500 SPX is down about 14% from its early-January 2022 all-time high, at last check — was caused by rising interest rates, the narrative went, and those … Read more

The Bitter Fruit of Inflation: Dow 29500

The recent report showing negative economic growth for the first quarter of the year is a painful reminder of the damage that inflation can do. The current 8.5% inflation rate is the highest in 40 years. But few policy makers or Federal Reserve governors seem to have learned the lessons from the last bout of … Read more

Chinese Tech Stocks Lead Market Rebound

HONG KONG—Alibaba Group Holding ltd. BABA 9.90% and other Chinese technology stocks jumped by double-digit percentages, leading a broader market rally, on investor hopes that the government would do more to support the sector and the broader economy. The surge on Friday helped Chinese shares recoup some of their recent losses, while the yuan also … Read more

Has the U.S. economy really shrunk in early 2022? Is a recession near? No. Here’s why.

The contraction surprising in the US economy in the first quarter has been written off by Wall Street as a misleadingly weak number that in no way signals an oncoming recession. So how well did the economy really perform? Not bad, it seems. Maybe even pretty good, economists say. “The first quarter was not as … Read more

First major Wall Street bank to forecast a recession now sees downside risk to its own pessimistic view

Deutsche Bank, the first major Wall Street bank to call for a US recession during the current elevated-inflation era, is now going farther out on a limb: It sees downside risks to its own outlook, given the likelihood of persistently elevated price gains and continued upside surprises. Describing themselves as “the extreme outlier on the … Read more

Retirees’ Re-Entering the Labor Market Isn’t ‘Good for the Economy’

April 20, 2022 6:08 pm ET Workers mount racks for solar panels in Albuquerque, NM, April 14. Photo: Roberto E. Rosales/Zuma Press Does inflation increase wealth? That is the contention of some economists and business journalists who should know better. Inflation has a silver lining for economic welfare, they claim, or price increases are good … Read more

Where to hide in the junk-bond market as recession worries ramp up

Smoking isn’t good for your health, but bonds issued by riskier food, beverage and tobacco companies consistently have been top performers when times get tough. That’s a key takeaway from a new report examining which parts of the US high-yield HYG, -0.06%, or “junk-bond JNK, -0.07%, “market have held up best when economic recessions hit … Read more

Here are 30 stocks that Goldman Sachs likes when the economy stutters and markets gyrate

Wall Street is wobbling ahead of Tuesday’s open, as big earnings loom and with ample, gloomy distractions out there. Fighting has ramped up again in Ukraine as the battle begins for the country’s eastern front. Apart from the tragic humanitarian crisis, the conflict is already causing the World Bank and others to cut their global … Read more

What the rising probability of a ‘growth scare’ means for the stock market, according to Citigroup

Recession worries are working their way into equities, according to Citigroup. A “mild recession in 2023” could lead to a drop of about 20% for the S&P 500 index from its late March high of around 4,600, analysts at Citigroup said in a research report Monday. Under “a more severe, macro growth scare,” the index … Read more

Here’s the first Wall Street recession call of the new inflation era

One of the big questions over the past week or so is whether to listen to the bond market’s apparent warning that the US economy may slide into recession after the Federal Reserve goes into a tightening frenzy. At least one Wall Street bank now agrees. “Two shocks in recent months, the war in Ukraine … Read more