Might recent stock market weakness be forecasting an economic recession? Up until last this week, few had given that possibility much credence. The market’s weakness — the S&P 500 SPX is down about 14% from its early-January 2022 all-time high, at last check — was caused by rising interest rates, the narrative went, and those … Read more
The recent report showing negative economic growth for the first quarter of the year is a painful reminder of the damage that inflation can do. The current 8.5% inflation rate is the highest in 40 years. But few policy makers or Federal Reserve governors seem to have learned the lessons from the last bout of … Read more
HONG KONG—Alibaba Group Holding ltd. BABA 9.90% and other Chinese technology stocks jumped by double-digit percentages, leading a broader market rally, on investor hopes that the government would do more to support the sector and the broader economy. The surge on Friday helped Chinese shares recoup some of their recent losses, while the yuan also … Read more
The contraction surprising in the US economy in the first quarter has been written off by Wall Street as a misleadingly weak number that in no way signals an oncoming recession. So how well did the economy really perform? Not bad, it seems. Maybe even pretty good, economists say. “The first quarter was not as … Read more
Deutsche Bank, the first major Wall Street bank to call for a US recession during the current elevated-inflation era, is now going farther out on a limb: It sees downside risks to its own outlook, given the likelihood of persistently elevated price gains and continued upside surprises. Describing themselves as “the extreme outlier on the … Read more
April 20, 2022 6:08 pm ET Workers mount racks for solar panels in Albuquerque, NM, April 14. Photo: Roberto E. Rosales/Zuma Press Does inflation increase wealth? That is the contention of some economists and business journalists who should know better. Inflation has a silver lining for economic welfare, they claim, or price increases are good … Read more
Smoking isn’t good for your health, but bonds issued by riskier food, beverage and tobacco companies consistently have been top performers when times get tough. That’s a key takeaway from a new report examining which parts of the US high-yield HYG, -0.06%, or “junk-bond JNK, -0.07%, “market have held up best when economic recessions hit … Read more
Wall Street is wobbling ahead of Tuesday’s open, as big earnings loom and with ample, gloomy distractions out there. Fighting has ramped up again in Ukraine as the battle begins for the country’s eastern front. Apart from the tragic humanitarian crisis, the conflict is already causing the World Bank and others to cut their global … Read more
Recession worries are working their way into equities, according to Citigroup. A “mild recession in 2023” could lead to a drop of about 20% for the S&P 500 index from its late March high of around 4,600, analysts at Citigroup said in a research report Monday. Under “a more severe, macro growth scare,” the index … Read more
One of the big questions over the past week or so is whether to listen to the bond market’s apparent warning that the US economy may slide into recession after the Federal Reserve goes into a tightening frenzy. At least one Wall Street bank now agrees. “Two shocks in recent months, the war in Ukraine … Read more